Ever since their game against Wales was cancelled in March, Gregor Townsend’s players have repeatedly said they would have won in Cardiff that day. Quite a claim for guys representing a nation that has known only failure in the Principality for almost two decades.
Understanding of the cause, but frustrated by the effect, they spoke with absolute confidence about what would have gone down had Covid-19 not got in their way.
With 10 minutes left at the rearranged venue of Llanelli, the time had come to back up their words with deeds. The game had been an awful one, devoid of excitement and quality and pockmarked by mistakes and stop-start rugby, but it now took on a grisly fascination.
Scotland led by a point at 11-10. Finn Russell had long since departed with a damaged groin and now Adam Hastings was off with a dicky shoulder. Stuart Hogg, the 15, was playing 10. Scott Steele, the debutant scrum-half, had to play on the wing.
As bad as Wales were – a dismal imitation of a team taken to dizzy highs by Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards – there is always an anxiety among Scotland fans when tight Test matches come down the stretch, particularly in Wales.
Fatalism may have taken hold as the clock hit 70 minutes. We’ve all seen this movie before. It’s more familiar to the Scotland fans than Willy Wonka at Christmas-time. “They’re going to lose the plot… in the last minute… Wales will get a penalty… Halfpenny will kick it…”
That denouement started with a mighty Scottish scrum and a penalty that took them deep into Welsh territory, where they remained. If we expected Scottish heads to explode, they remained cool. If we doubted their ability to see the game out, they did it with ease.
With the pressure at its most intense, Scotland became calm and controlled. We suspected that this team has grown up, from dreamer to realist, and now we know it to be true.
‘Scotland have played better in Wales and lost’
The cut and thrust and thud and blunder of Llanelli will soon be forgotten, but for Townsend’s players the feelgood will last.
In the past, they have played a whole lot better against Wales and have lost. There was no comfort in that, no satisfaction in performance when the game was lost. Championship rugby is all about winning.
All of them have believed they’ve been on the right track since their World Cup debrief in January, a hugely significant moment when the penny finally dropped and the playing mantra shifted.
Scotland have been easy on the eye over the years. Some sumptuous scores, some outrageous skill, some moments to savour. They were nice to watch but easy to beat. Mostly, they were boys among men. Naive. Not tuned into the brutal realities of Test rugby.
The big teams just waited for Scotland to overplay their hand, then picked them off. Their capacity to shoot themselves in the foot has been pretty much an ever-present over the past 20 years.
Since 2000, they’ve conceded an average of 124 points per Six Nations campaign. Only once, in 2006, had they conceded less than 100. Last season, it was 125. The season before, 128. This season… 59.
That level of stinginess is remarkable. It’s the lowest number of points any team has conceded in the Six Nations in five years. The winners of the tournament usually give up about 70 points.
It’s progress built on Steve Tandy’s defence and a newfound pride in protecting their own line. Pragmatism, in other words. All champion teams – Exeter, Leinster, England – have a cussedness at their core. They all begin by shoring things up defensively and then build layers on top of solid foundations.
This season, Scotland had the best defensive record of any team in the Six Nations. That’s never happened before.
At the World Cup, they shipped four tries against Ireland and another four against Japan. In the entire Six Nations just gone, they conceded five. They let Wales in for a desperately soft score on Saturday, but that kind of weakness is becoming rare.
Artillery is there, but balance must be found
The attack has been less impressive. Or, at least, the finishing has been.
That game against Ireland on opening day is still one to make Townsend wince. It should have been won. There was the Stuart Hogg moment, of course, but they had so many other wasted opportunities.
Even the England game in the monsoon offered up chances. You couldn’t say that the Scots deserved to win but they spent twice the amount of time attacking England in their 22 that England spent attacking Scotland in theirs.
Townsend has the attacking artillery to score more often – and to kick on to the level of serious title rivals they will need to be more creative. Saturday’s backline of Hogg, Darcy Graham, Chris Harris, James Lang, Blair Kinghorn, Russell and Ali Price is, in theory, a dangerous crew.
A back-up backline of Huw Jones, Sean Maitland, Rory Hutchinson, Sam Johnson, Duhan van der Merwe, Adam Hastings and George Horne shows that Townsend has options now.
The upcoming Tests could be all about getting the balance right between attack and defence.
What a journey the coach has been on these past 18 months. The travails of the 2019 Six Nations followed by the dejection of the World Cup and, in its wake, the fallout with Russell.
Townsend took a pounding in that period. His credibility was on the line for a little while there. He’s had to look at the way he was doing things and accept that he needed to change. It took some humility.
Townsend has emerged as a stronger character, one who made a great call in bringing in Tandy to reinvent his defence and another great call in bringing in Pieter de Villiers to work on the scrum.
His own management style has altered, too. You hear that from the players. They’re happier now. Finally, they’ve hit on a way of playing that brings results.
They have a breather before going again in the November tournament, a chance to reinforce the self-belief they developed with three championship wins in a row, two of them on the road.
Those games against Italy, France, Fiji – then one of Ireland, England, Wales or Georgia – will be a prelude to the 2021 Six Nations, which will be upon us before we know it.
The next step is not just to win three out of five, it’s to go into the final Saturday with a realistic shot at the title. More and more, they’ll believe they’re capable of getting to that point.
— to www.bbc.co.uk
