Virginia’s COVID-19 numbers have declined over the past two weeks as a result of a holiday surge that did not last as long as feared. But new variants of the virus – and a rocky vaccine rollout—have experts urging caution.
That was the gist of the latest weekly updates from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute and the RAND Corporation, both of which analyze the state’s pandemic data and issue weekly reports to the Virginia Department of Health.
Virginia’s average number of daily COVID-19 cases remains “very high” with 63 counties – including Prince William – reporting more than 40 cases per 100,000 residents. Anything above 20 cases daily per 100,000 residents is considered “very high.”
But the UVA Institute’s adaptive model shows weekly cases may have peaked on Jan. 24 with 69 cases per 100,000 residents, the report says.
That’s a big switch from previous reports that predicted an average of more than 100 cases per 100,000 residents in mid-February.
Things could get worse fast, however, if Virginians allow “pandemic fatigue” to set in as new, more transmissible variants take hold. Under the model’s updated worst-case scenario, average daily cases could peak at 111 cases per 100,000 residents during the week ending May 9, the UVA Biocomplexity Institute says.
“To avoid high peaks or extending the pandemic, we must give vaccines time to have an impact, especially as new variants continue to be identified in the United States,” the report says.
Regarding the variants, the report notes that more than 600 cases of new “variants of concern” have been identified in 33 states.
In Virginia, four cases of the variant first found in the United Kingdom have been identified – three in Northern Virginia and one in Northwest Virginia – while one case of the variant that first appeared in South Africa was identified in Eastern Virginia.
Maryland, however, has identified 12 cases of the U.K. variant and three of the South Africa variant, leading the UVA report to speculate that might be why Loudoun County is the only health district currently seeing a surge in cases.
“While it may be a coincidence, the only health district currently experiencing a surge, Loudoun, is also located in Virginia’s Northern region,” the report said.
The reports, released Friday, were published before new research suggesting the new variants are “spreading rapidly” in the U.S. The CDC has already forecast that the U.K. variant would become dominant in the U.S. by March.
Florida has so far reported the highest prevalence of the U.K. variant, formally known as the B.1.1.7 variant, with 187 cases as of Thursday, Feb. 4.
Florida was followed by the much more populous California with 145 infections. The research estimated the doubling time of B.1.1.7 prevalence in positive test results at 9.1 days.
Vaccinations off to ‘a rocky start’
The report notes that “after a rocky start,” vaccine administrations are picking up with more than 7% of Virginians having received one or more doses as of Friday.
But the RAND Corporation notes that “large stockpiles” of the vaccine remain across the state with about half of the doses delivered not yet administered.
“While vaccines will ultimately spell the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, it may be late summer before enough people are vaccinated to allow a return to normalcy,” the report notes. “In the meantime, the modeling shows that maintaining or improving, prevention practices can successfully lower case rates.”
This is true even if the new variants become dominant because while the variants increase transmission rates, their impact relies on existing levels of transmission, the report notes.
“If existing transmission rates are low, the impact of VoCs is limited. Additionally, fewer cases mean fewer opportunities for VoCs to develop,” the report says.
Local deaths reported in February: 12
As of Sunday, the Prince William Health District had reported a total of 12 deaths in February. The latest victim was a white woman age 80 or older, according to VDH data.
The overall local death toll remains 365, however, one death, that of a Black woman in her 50s, was removed from the Prince William County death toll on Sunday.
Statewide, 41 deaths were reported on Saturday, while five were reported on Sunday. Virginia is losing an average of 45 people a day from COVID-19, according to the VDH.
Cases: Virginia added 2,949 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday and is averaging about 3,400 cases a day as of Feb. 7.
The Prince William Health District reported 188 new cases on Sunday, including 168 in Prince William County, 19 in Manassas and one in Manassas Park. The local health district is now reporting an average of 190 cases a day as of Feb. 6, down from a peak of 499 on Jan. 20.
Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state ticked up slightly with 2,376 people hospitalized on Sunday, up 13 from Friday.
Of those hospitalized, 465 patients were in intensive care units, up three from Friday. There were 294 on ventilators, unchanged from Friday, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.
About 34% of the state’s ventilators were in use and 82% of the state’s ICU beds were occupied on Thursday, according to the VHHA.
There were eight new hospitalizations reported locally over the last two days, including those of two residents in their 40s, two in their 60s, two in their 70s and two age 80 or older, according to VDH data.
Percent-positivity rate: The local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests continued to tick down on Sunday and is now 11.5%.
It is the third-highest in Northern Virginia, with the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 15.4%, up slightly from Friday, and Loudoun County reporting 11.6%, up from 10.7% on Friday.
The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which has been extended until Feb. 28.
School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools remain in the “highest risk” range in two of the three core metrics on the CDC scale but are also in the “lowest risk” range in two of three secondary metrics.
Among core metrics: The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the “highest risk” category at 709.6, up from 694.9 on Friday.
The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 12.5%, which is also in the “highest-risk” category.
Among secondary metrics: the percent change in cases from this week to last last is negative 32.7%, which is in the “lowest risk” range.
The percentage of hospital beds filled in the region remained below 80% on Friday at 79.5%, which is in the “lowest risk” range, while 10.9% of local hospital beds are filled with COVID-19 patients, which is in the “moderate risk” range.
The CDC school metrics for Prince William County Schools as of Sunday, Feb. 7. Key: Red=highest risk; orange=higher risk; yellow=moderate risk; light green=lower risk; dark green= lowest risk. Note in the last category, the highest risk range is orange: “higher risk.”
Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District’s rate of infection per capita rose dipped to 40.8 on Sunday, which is still considered “very high,” but is down from about 60 a few weeks ago.
COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Friday from a low of 14.9 in Manassas Park to a high of 54.2 in Stafford County.
Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 40.8 on Sunday, up slightly from 39 on Friday.
ZIP Code data: Average daily cases fell by at least one-third in 16 of 20 local ZIP Codes during the week ending Feb. 6.
Declines ranged from 56% in Haymarket’s 20169 to 17% in Manassas’ ZIP Code 20112.
Average daily cases were unchanged in four ZIP Codes: 20119, 20137, 20143 and 22134.
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Friday, Feb. 5: Prince William reports another 3 lost to COVID-19, raising the February death toll to 11
The Prince William Health District reported another three deaths due to COVID-19 on Friday, bringing the number of local deaths reported in February to 11 and the overall local death toll to 365, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
The latest victims were three women, all residents of Prince William County. One was in her 60s, while two were age 80 or older. Two were White and one was Black, according to VDH data.
The losses follow eight other local deaths reported on Wednesday and Thursday.
The victims reported earlier in the week included five women and three men. Three were in their 50s, one was in their 60s, two were in their 70s and two were age 80 or older.
Statewide, 82 deaths were reported on Friday. Virginia is losing an average of 50 people a day from COVID-19, according to the VDH.
Cases: Virginia added 5,069 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, an increase from about 3,000 reported in each of the last two days.
The Prince William Health District reported 285 new cases on Friday, including 264 in Prince William County, 16 in Manassas and five in Manassas Park. The local health district reported fewer than 200 cases in each of the last two days.
Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state continued to tick down on Friday with 2,363 people hospitalized Friday, down 81 from Thursday.
Of those hospitalized, 462 patients were in intensive care units, down 24 from Thursday. There were 294 on ventilators, unchanged from Thursday, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.
About 35% of the state’s ventilators were in use and 82% of the state’s ICU beds were occupied on Thursday, according to the VHHA.
There were two new hospitalizations reported locally Friday, including those of one child age 9 or under and one resident in their 50s, according to VDH data.
Percent-positivity rate: The local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests continued to fall locally on Friday and is now 11.7%. It is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 15.2%, up slightly from Thursday.
Loudoun County reported a rate of 10.7% on Friday, while Virginia as a whole reported a percent-positivity rate of 10.8%.
The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which has been extended until Feb. 28.
School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Friday remained in the “highest risk” range in two of the three core metrics on the CDC scale but showed improvement in the secondary metrics.
Among core metrics: The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the “highest risk” category at 694.9, down slightly from Thursday.
The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 12.8%, which is also in the “highest-risk” category but also down from about 14% to 15% in recent weeks.
The percent change in cases from this week to last last is negative 26.7%, which is in the “lowest risk” range.
The percentage of hospital beds filled in the region remained below 80% on Friday at 74.3%, which is in the “lowest risk” range, while 11.7% of local hospital beds are filled with COVID-19 patients, which is in the moderate risk range.
The CDC school metrics for Prince William County Schools as of Sunday, Feb. 7. Key: Red=highest risk; orange=higher risk; yellow=moderate risk; light green=lower risk; dark green= lowest risk. Note in the last category, the highest risk range is orange: “higher risk.”
Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District’s rate of infection per capita rose slightly on Friday to 42, up from 40.2 per 100,000 residents on Thursday.
COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Friday from a low of 11.6 in Manassas Park to a high of 50.8 in Stafford County. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 39.5 on Friday, down from 41.6 on Wednesday.
ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit Woodbridge ZIP Code 22193 saw the most new cases reported on Friday with 52.
Average daily cases mostly dropped across the county this week, largely due to the spike of more than 1,500 cases reported on Sunday, Jan. 17. This week’s daily case numbers, while still high, were much lower by comparison.
The average number of daily cases reported in the last week dropped in 17 of 20 local ZIP Codes, including 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20119, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 20187, 22025 and 22026.
Daily averages stayed the same in two ZIP Codes: 20134 and 20143.
Average daily case numbers rose in only one ZIP Code: 22172.
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Thursday, Feb. 4: Prince William reports another 4 lost to COVID-19, raising the February death toll to 8
The Prince William Health District reported another four deaths due to COVID-19 on Thursday, bringing the number of local deaths reported in February to eight and the overall local death toll to 362, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
The first four deaths of the month were reported Wednesday, those of two men and two women. Two were in their 50s, while one was in their 70s and one was age 80 or older.
The latest victims, whose deaths were reported Thursday, included three women and one man, one in their 50s, one in their 60s, one in their 70s and one age 80 or older. One was White, one was Latino and two were Black. All were residents of Prince William County, according to VDH data.
The local health district, which includes Prince William County, Manassas and Manassas Park, reported 29 deaths in the last week of January and 56 for the entire month of January, which was the deadliest month so far of the 11-month pandemic.
Statewide, 75 deaths were reported on Thursday. Virginia is losing an average of 49 people a day from COVID-19, according to the VDH.
Cases: Virginia added 3,059 new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday, a slight increase from the 2,959 added on Wednesday, Feb. 3.
The number added in the Prince William Health District was again not immediately clear on Thursday, as VDH reported vastly different case numbers for the local health district on different parts of its COVID-19 website.
A request for explanation had not yet been answered by VDH officials as of Thursday afternoon.
Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state continued to tick down on Thursday with 2,444 people hospitalized across the state, down 101 from Wednesday.
Of those hospitalized, 486 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down 14 from Wednesday. There were 294 on ventilators, down 15 from Wednesday, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.
About 35% of the state’s ventilators were in use and 81% of the state’s ICU beds were occupied on Wednesday, according to the VHHA.
There were six new hospitalizations reported locally Thursday, including those of three residents in their 40s, one in their 50s and two in their 70s, according to VDH data.
Percent-positivity rate: The local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests continued to fall locally on Thursday and is now 12.2%. It is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 15.1%, down slightly from Wednesday.
Loudoun County reported a rate of 10.4% on Thursday, while Virginia as a whole reported a percent-positivity rate of 11%.
The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which he extended on Wednesday until Feb. 28.
School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Thursday remained in the “highest risk” range in two of the three core metrics on the CDC scale but showed improvement in the secondary metrics.
Among core metrics: The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the “highest risk” category at 698.9. But slightly higher than Wednesday, but still down nearly 50% over the last few weeks.
The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 13.1%, which is also in the “highest-risk” category but also down from about 14 to 15% in recent weeks.
The percent change in cases from this week to last last is negative 32.6%, which is in the “lowest risk” range.
The percentage of hospital beds filled in the region dropped to 80% on Thursday, which is in the “lowest risk” range, while 11.8% of local hospital beds are filled with COVID-19 patients, also in the moderate risk range.
Rate of infection per 100,000 residents: The Prince William Health District’s rate of infection per capita also ticked down on Thursday to 40. 2 from 42.1 per 100,000 residents on Wednesday.
COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Wednesday from a low of 9.9 in Manassas Park to a high of 47.7 in the City of Manassas. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 38.1 on Thursday, down from 41.6 on Wednesday.
ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit Woodbridge ZIP Code 22193 saw the most new cases on Thursday with 34. It was followed by ZIP Code 20110 with 22 and 20109 with 20.
Average daily cases mostly dropped across the county this week, largely due to the spike of more than 1,500 cases reported on Sunday, Jan. 17. This week’s daily case numbers, while still high, were much lower by comparison.
The average number of daily cases reported in the last week dropped in 17 of 20 local ZIP Codes, including 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20119, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 20187, 22025 and 22026.
Daily averages stayed the same in two ZIP Codes: 20134 and 20143.
Average daily case numbers rose in only one ZIP Code: 22172.
Wednesday, Feb. 3: Prince William reports 4 more lost to COVID-19
The Prince William Health District has reported its first four deaths of February 2021 due to COVID-19, raising the local death toll to 358 as the pandemic enters its 11th month.
The latest local victims include two women and two men; two were Black and two were White. All were residents of Prince William County. Two were in their 50s, one was in their 70s and one was 80 or older, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
Aside from the ongoing grim news of additional deaths, there were numerous improvements in the local pandemic metrics on Wednesday, Feb. 3.
While still well above the targeted 5%, the percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests continued to tick down and was 13% on Wednesday.
Also trending lower is the rate of infection per capita, which was 42 in Prince William County, 47 in Manassas and just 9.1 in Manassas Park as of Wednesday, Feb. 3, according to VDH data.
Cases: Virginia added 2,959 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, Feb. 3. The number added in the Prince William Health District was not immediately clear, as VDH reported 136 local cases on one part of its website and 292 on another.
The VDH was looking into the discrepancy Wednesday afternoon at the Prince William Times’ request.
Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state continued to tick down with 2,545 on Wednesday, Feb. 3, down 146 from Saturday, Jan. 30.
Of those hospitalized, 500 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down 11 from Saturday. There were 309 on ventilators, which was unchanged from over the weekend, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.
About 36% of the state’s ventilators were in use and 81% of the state’s ICU beds were occupied on Wednesday, according to the VHHA.
There were three new hospitalizations reported locally over the last two days, including those of one resident in their 30s, one in their 40s and one in their 60s, according to VDH data.
Percent-positivity rate: The local percent-positivity rate is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 15.6%, up from 14.8% over the weekend.
Loudoun County reported a rate of 11% on Wednesday, down from 13.3% over the weekend.
The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which he extended on Wednesday until Feb. 28.
School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Wednesday remained in the “highest risk” range in two of the three core metrics on the CDC scale.
Among secondary metrics, one was in the “lowest risk” range, while two were in the “moderate risk” range.
The CDC school metrics for Prince William County Schools as of Sunday, Feb. 7. Key: Red=highest risk; orange=higher risk; yellow=moderate risk; light green=lower risk; dark green= lowest risk. Note in the last category, the highest risk range is orange: “higher risk.”
The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the “highest risk” category at 686.5. But that’s down nearly 50% over the last few weeks.
The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 13.2%, which is also in the “highest-risk” category but also down from about 14 to 15% in recent weeks.
The percent change in cases from this week to last last is negative 24.8%, which is in the “lowest risk” range.
The percentage of hospital beds filled in the region remained at 81.9% on Wednesday, which is in the “moderate risk” range, while 12.3% of local hospital beds are filled with COVID-19 patients, also in the moderate risk range.
The county reported 42.1 per 100,000 residents on Wednesday, down from 62.4 over the weekend.
COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Wednesday from a low of 9.1 in Manassas Park to a high of 51.2 in Stafford County. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 41.6 on Wednesday, down from 56 on Saturday.
ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit Woodbridge ZIP Code 22193 saw the most new cases on Thursday with 22. Still that’s a much smaller daily number than in recent weeks.
Average daily cases mostly dropped across the county this week, largely due to the spike of more than 1,500 cases reported on Sunday, Jan. 17. This week’s daily case numbers, while still high, were much lower by comparison.
The average number of daily cases reported in the last week dropped in 17 of 20 local ZIP Codes, including 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20119, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 20187, 22025 and 22026.
Daily averages stayed the same in two ZIP Codes: 20134 and 20143.
Average daily case numbers rose in only one ZIP Code: 22172.
Saturday, Jan. 30: Prince William loses 11 more to COVID-19 in 2 days, raising the January death toll to 56
COVID-19 is continuing to exact a deadly toll on Virginia and the Prince William Health District. Another 11 local deaths were reported over the last two days, including those one resident in their 40s and two in their 50s, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
The latest deaths come on top of 18 already reported this week, bringing the total number of local deaths reported this week to a whopping 29. The number of deaths reported in January alone is now 56 in the Prince William Health District, which includes the county, Manassas and Manassas Park.
The Prince William Health District’s total death toll is now 354.
January 2021 has been the most deadly month locally of the now nearly 11-month-old pandemic. The rising local numbers reflect the rising number of COVID-19 deaths reported across Virginia and the nation this month.
Virginia added another 141 deaths over the past two days, bringing the state’s pandemic death toll to 6,449.
Across the state, 1,417 deaths have so far been reported in January 2021. Virginia is now losing an average of 53 residents a day to the ongoing pandemic, according to VDH data.
Locally, the latest fatalities included those of eight men and three women; one was in their 40s, two were in their 50s, one was in their 60s, three were in their 70s and four were age 80 and older, according to VDH data.
All were residents of Prince William County. Three were White, six were Latino and two were Asian or Pacific Islander.
Cases: Virginia added more than 4,000 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday, with 4,309, including 369 in the Prince William Health District.
The new cases reported on Saturday included 341 in Prince William County and 28 in the City of Manassas. There were no new cases reported in Manassas Park.
Of cases for which age information was available, residents in their 40s reported the most cases on Saturday with 47. They were followed residents in their 50s with 46 cases and those in their 20s with 42.
Kids and teens ages 19 and under reported 55 new cases on Saturday with 24 reported among kids ages 9 and under and 31 reported by residents between the ages of 10 and 19.
Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state remained below 3,000 on Saturday, numbering 2,691, down 15 from Thursday.
Of those hospitalized, 511 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down four from Thursday. There were 309 on ventilators, down 13, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.
About 36% of the state’s ventilators were in use and 82% of the state’s ICU beds were occupied on Thursday, according to the VHHA.
There were nine new hospitalizations reported locally over the last two days, including those of one resident in their 40s, three in their 50s, three in their 60s and two age 80 or older, according to VDH data.
Percent-positivity rate: The Prince William Health District’s seven-day average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests remained 14.1% on Saturday, unchanged from Thursday.
The local percent-positivity rate is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 14.8%. Loudoun County was close behind Prince William with 13.3%.
The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which he extended on Wednesday until Feb. 28.
Cases per 100,000 residents: The Prince William County again reported the third-highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita in the Northern Virginia region on Jan. 30.
The local health district reported 62.4 infections per 100,000 residents, up from 59.6 on Thursday.
COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Saturday from a low of 9.1 in Manassas Park to a high of 74.7 in Loudoun County. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 56.3 Saturday, down from 57.1 on Thursday.
ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit Woodbridge ZIP Code 22193 saw the most new cases on Saturday with 72.
Average daily cases mostly dropped across the county this week, largely due to the spike of more than 1,500 cases reported on Sunday, Jan. 17. This week’s daily case numbers, while still high, were much lower by comparison.
The average number of daily cases reported in the last week dropped in 17 of 20 local ZIP Codes, including 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20119, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 20187, 22025 and 22026.
Daily averages stayed the same in two ZIP Codes: 20134 and 20143.
Average daily case numbers rose in only one ZIP Code: 22172.
Thursday, Jan. 28: Prince William loses 7 more to COVID-19, raising the January death toll to 45
Another seven local deaths due to COVID-19 were reported on Thursday, bringing the total number of local deaths reported this week to 18 and the January death toll to 45, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
January 2021 has been the most deadly month locally of the now nearly 11-month-old pandemic. The rising local numbers reflect the rising number of COVID-19 deaths reported across Virginia and the nation this month. The Prince William Health District’s total death toll is now 343.
Virginia added another 80 deaths on Thursday, bringing the state’s pandemic death toll to 6,308.
Across the state, 1,276 deaths have so far been reported in January 2021. Virginia is now losing an average of 53 residents a day to the ongoing pandemic, according to VDH data.
Locally, the latest fatalities included those of six men and one woman, three in their 60s, three in their 70s and one age 80 or older. All were residents of Prince William County. Five were White and one was Latino. Race and ethnicity data was not released for one of the recent victims.
Cases: Virginia added more than 5,000 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, with 5,121, including 244 in the Prince William Health District.
The new cases reported on Thursday included 231 in Prince William County, 11 in the City of Manassas and two in Manassas Park.
Residents in their 40s reported the most cases on Thursday with 72. They were followed residents in their 50s with 53 cases and those in their 20s with 49.
Kids and teens ages 19 and under reported 54 new cases on Thursday with 25 reported among kids ages 9 and under and 29 reported by residents between the ages of 10 and 19.
Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state remained below 3,000 on Thursday, numbering 2,706, down 162 from Wednesday.
There are 527 people hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Northern Virginia, down 38; 681 in Eastern Virginia, down 50; 684 in Central Virginia, down 33; 375 in Northwest Virginia, down 24; and 434 in Southwest Virginia, down 18.
Of those hospitalized, 515 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down 22 from Wednesday. There were 322 on ventilators, down 10, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.
About 36% of the state’s ventilators were in use and 82% of the state’s ICU beds were occupied on Thursday, according to the VHHA.
There were four new hospitalizations reported locally on Thursday, those of one resident in their 40s, one in their 50s and two in their 60s, according to VDH data.
Percent-positivity rate: The Prince William Health District’s seven-day average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was 14.1% on Thursday, up from 13.7% on Thursday.
The local percent-positivity rate is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 14.3%. Loudoun County was close behind Prince William with 13.7%.
The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which he extended on Wednesday until Feb. 28.
Cases per 100,000 residents: The Prince William County again reported the third-highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita in the Northern Virginia region on Jan. 28.
The local health district reported 59.6 infections per 100,000 residents, up from 56 on Wednesday.
COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Thursday from a low of 15.7 in Manassas Park to a high of 79 in Loudoun County. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 57.1 on Thursday, up from 55.1 on Wednesday.
School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Thursday remained in the “highest risk” range in two of five metrics on the CDC scale and in the “moderate risk” range in two of the three secondary metrics.
The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the “highest risk” category at 1,125, down 13 from Wednesday. The number is more than five times the 200 needed to qualify as “highest risk.”
The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 15%, which is also in the “highest-risk” category and remains unchanged from Wednesday.
The percent of hospital beds filled in the region rose above 80% on Wednesday with 82.5%, which is in the “moderate risk” range.
ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit Woodbridge ZIP Code 22192 saw the most new cases on Thursday with 44.
Reflecting the spike of new COVID-19 cases early last week, the seven-day average number of new daily cases rose significantly in 14 of 20 Prince William area ZIP Codes over the past week.
Daily cases were up an average of 60% in those ZIP Codes, which included: 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 22025, and 22026.
Daily averages stayed the same in four ZIP Codes: 20119, 20143, 20187 and 22125.
Cases dropped in only two ZIP Codes: 22134 and 22172.
Wednesday, Jan. 28: Prince William reports 4 more local deaths to COVID-19, bringing January toll to 38
The deaths of four more local residents due to COVID-19 were reported Wednesday, just one day after seven fatalities were reported in Prince William County and Manassas.
The reported losses of 11 local residents in just two days’ time has contributed to making January 2021 one of the most deadly months of the pandemic in the Prince William Health District. A total of 38 local deaths have been reported this month as of Wednesday, Jan. 27.
The Prince William Health District’s total death toll is now 336.
Virginia added 54 deaths on Wednesday, bringing the state’s total pandemic death toll to 6,228.
Across the state, 1,196 deaths have so far been reported in January 2021. Virginia is now losing an average of 52 residents a day to the ongoing pandemic, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
Locally, the latest fatalities included those of three men and one woman, one in their 60s and three in their 70s. All were residents of Prince William County. Two were White and one was Latino. Race and ethnicity data was not released for one of the recent victims.
Cases: Virginia added more than 5,000 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, with 5,227, including 299 in the Prince William Health District.
The new cases reported on Wednesday included 278 in Prince William County and 21 in the City of Manassas. There were no new cases in Manassas Park.
Residents in their 50s reported the most cases on Wednesday with 51. They were followed residents in their 40s with 50 cases and those in their 30s with 44.
Kids and teens ages 19 and under reported 45 new cases on Wednesday with 21 reported among kids ages 9 and under and 24 reported by residents between the ages of 10 and 19.
Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state remained below 3,000 on Wednesday, numbering 2,868, which up 21 from Tuesday.
There are 565 people hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Northern Virginia, up 23 since Tuesday; 731 in Eastern Virginia, down 12; 717 in Central Virginia, down one; 399 in Northwest Virginia, up three; and 452 in Southwest Virginia, up three.
Of those hospitalized, 537 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down two from Tuesday. There were 332 on ventilators, up 14, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.
About 36% of the state’s ventilators were in use and 84% of the state’s ICU beds were occupied on Wednesday, a slight increase from Tuesday, according to the VHHA.
There were three new hospitalizations reported locally on Wednesday, those of residents in their 50s, 60s and 70s, according to VDH data.
Percent-positivity rate: The Prince William Health District’s seven-day average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was 13.7% on Wednesday, down from 13.9% Tuesday.
The local percent-positivity rate is the second-highest in Northern Virginia, with Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties, reporting a rate of 14.1%. Loudoun County was close behind Prince William with 13.7%.
The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10, which he extended on Wednesday until Feb. 28.
Cases per 100,000 residents: Prince William County reported the third-highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita in the Northern Virginia region on Wednesday, Jan. 27.
The local health district reported 56 infections per 100,000 residents, up from 54 on Tuesday.
COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Tuesday from a low of 15.7 in Manassas Park to a high of 74.4 in Loudoun County. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 55.3 on Wednesday, a slight increase from Tuesday.
School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Tuesday remained in the “highest risk” range in two of five metrics on the CDC scale and in the “moderate risk” range in two of the three secondary metrics.
The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the “highest risk” category at 1,138, up 18 from Tuesday. The number is more than five times the 200 needed to qualify as “highest risk.”
The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 15%, which is also in the “highest-risk” category, but slightly lower than Tuesday’s 15.1%.
The percent of hospital beds filled in the region rose above 80% on Wednesday with 82.7%, which is in the “moderate risk” range.
The percent of hospital beds filled with COVID-19 patients is 14.8%, also in the “moderate risk” range.
ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit ZIP Codes in Woodbridge saw the most new cases on Wednesday.
Woodbridge ZIP Code 22193 added 58 cases, while 22191 reported 42 new cases and 22192 reported 36 new cases.
Reflecting the spike of new COVID-19 cases early last week, the seven-day average number of new daily cases rose significantly in 14 of 20 Prince William area ZIP Codes over the past week.
Daily cases were up an average of 60% in those ZIP Codes, which included: 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 22025, and 22026.
Daily averages stayed the same in four ZIP Codes: 20119, 20143, 20187 and 22125.
Cases dropped in only two ZIP Codes: 22134 and 22172.
Tuesday, Jan. 26: Prince William reports 7 deaths due to COVID-19, adds 316 cases
The deaths of seven more local residents due to COVID-19 were reported Tuesday, a day that saw Virginia add 93 more deaths to the pandemic’s toll — the second-highest daily death tally since the pandemic began.
Virginia’s death toll reached 6,174 on Tuesday, Jan. 26. The Prince William Health District’s death toll is now 332.
The latest local victims include six residents of Prince William County and one of City of Manassas. They included six men and one woman; including one White resident, four Latino residents and two Black residents.
One was in their 40s, two were in their 50s, two were in their 60s, one was in their 70s and one was age 80 or older, according to Virginia Department of Health data.
Cases: Virginia added 4,707 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, including 316 in the Prince William Health District. Both numbers were lower than the more than 6,000 new cases reported across the state on Monday and more than 500 in the Prince William Health District.
The new cases reported on Tuesday included 297 in Prince William County, 17 in the City of Manassas and two in two in Manassas Park.
Residents in their 20s again reported the most cases on Tuesday with 84. They were followed residents in their 30s with 50 cases and those in their 40s with 39.
Kids and teens ages 19 and under reported 64 new cases on Tuesday with 34 reported among kids ages 9 and under and 30 reported by residents between the ages of 10 and 19.
Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state remained below 3,000 on Tuesday, numbering 2,847, down 45 from Monday.
There are 542 people hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Northern Virginia, down eight since Monday; 743 in Eastern Virginia, down 26; 718 in Central Virginia, down 14; 396 in Northwest Virginia, down five; and 449 in Southwest Virginia, down 15.
Of those hospitalized, 539 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down 15 from Monday. There were 316 on ventilators, down eight, according to the Virginia Healthcare and Hospital Association.
About 35% of the state’s ventilators were in use and 83% of the state’s ICU beds were occupied on Tuesday, a slight increase from Monday, according to the VHHA.
There were two new hospitalizations reported locally on Tuesday, those of two residents in their 60s, according to VDH data.
Percent-positivity rate: The Prince William Health District’s percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was 13.9% on Tuesday, down from 14% Monday.
The local percent-positivity rate remains the highest in Northern Virginia, with Loudoun County (13.4%) and the Rappahannock and Rappahannock-Rapidan health districts (13.8%), following close behind.
The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10.
Cases per 100,000 residents: Prince William County reported the third-highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita in the Northern Virginia region on Tuesday, Jan. 25.
The local health district reported 54.9 infections per 100,000 residents, down from 55.3 on Monday.
COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Tuesday from a low of 17.3 in Manassas Park to a high of 67.6 in Loudoun County. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 54.1 on Tuesday, a slight increase from Monday.
School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Tuesday remained in the “highest risk” range in two of five metrics on the CDC scale.
The county’s ratings improved in some metrics, including the percent change in number of cases since last week, which showed a decrease of 47.7%, now in the “lowest risk” range, and in the number of hospital beds filled in the region, which is now below 80%.
Both “secondary metrics” are in the green or “lowest risk” ranges.
The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the “highest risk” category at 1,120, up seven from Monday. The number is more than five times the 200 needed to qualify as “highest risk.”
The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 15.1%, which is also in the “highest-risk” category, but slightly lower than Monday’s 15.7%.
The percent of hospital beds filled with COVID-19 patients is 14.7%, which is in the “moderate risk” range.
ZIP Code data: Already hard-hit ZIP Codes in Woodbridge and Manassas saw the most new cases on Tuesday.
Woodbridge ZIP Code 22193 added 52 cases; Manassas-area ZIP Codes 20109 and 20110 added 44 new cases; and Woodbridge ZIP Code 22191 added 43 cases.
Reflecting the spike of new COVID-19 cases early last week, the seven-day average number of new daily cases rose significantly in 14 of 20 Prince William area ZIP Codes over the past week.
Daily cases were up an average of 60% in those ZIP Codes, which included: 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 22025, and 22026.
Daily averages stayed the same in four ZIP Codes: 20119, 20143, 20187 and 22125.
Cases dropped in only two ZIP Codes: 22134 and 22172.
Monday, Jan. 25: Prince William reports more than 500 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
New cases of COVID-19 in the Prince William Health District rose to more than 500 on Monday, an increase from lower daily case numbers posted over the past week.
The local health district, which includes Prince William County, Manassas and Manassas Park, reported 523 new cases on Monday, Jan. 25, one of the largest daily totals since the start of the pandemic.
Across the state, a total of 6,172 new cases were reported on Monday, which was also a sharp increase from previous days. Virginia also reported 52 additional hospitalizations and three more deaths.
Locally, however, there are some signs that COVID-19 metrics are at least stabilizing after post-holiday spikes, even if the rate of infection per capita remains “very high,” as defined by the RAND Corporation.
A seven-day average rate of infection per 100,000 residents of more than 20 is considered “very high.” Prince William County is reporting a per-capita rate of infection of 55.3 cases per 100,000 residents, which not only qualifies as “very high” but remains the highest in Northern Virginia.
The seven-day average of new daily cases has fallen to 258.9, however, down from 499 just five days ago. Meanwhile the percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests is now 14%, down from close to 20% last week. Still, the target percent-positivity rate is 5%.
Local deaths: A total of 12 local deaths due to COVID-19 were reported over the past week, bringing the local death toll of the pandemic to 325, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
Cases: Of the 523 new COVID-19 cases reported in the local health district on Monday, 479 were in Prince William County, 41 were in Manassas and three in Manassas Park.
Residents in their 20s reported the most cases Monday with 47. They were followed by residents age 10 to 19 with 38 cases and then by residents in their 30s and 40s with 31 new cases in both age groups.
Kids and teens ages 19 and under reported 51 new cases with kids age 9 and under reporting 13 new cases and those between the ages of 10 and 19 reporting 38, according to VDH data.
Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state remained below 3,000 on Monday, numbering 2,892.
There are 550 people hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Northern Virginia, down 27 since Saturday; 769 in Eastern Virginia, up 53; 704 in Central Virginia, down eight; 401 in Northwest Virginia, down 22; and 464 in Southwest Virginia, down 32.
Of those hospitalized, 554 patients were in intensive care units across the state, down 13 from Saturday. There were 324 on ventilators, up four, according to the Virginia Healthcare and Hospital Association.
About 34% of the state’s ventilators were in use and 82% of the state’s ICU beds were occupied on Monday, a slight decline from over the weekend, according to the VHHA.
There were three new hospitalizations reported locally on Monday, including those of residents in their 40s, 50s and one age 80 or older, according to VDH data.
Percent-positivity rate: The Prince William Health District’s percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was 14% on Monday, down from 18.3% last week.
The local percent-positivity rate is once again the highest in Northern Virginia, with Loudoun County (13.7%) and the Rappahannock and Rappahannock-Rapidan Health Districts (13.5%), following close behind.
The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10.
Cases per 100,000 residents: Prince William County reported the highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita in the Northern Virginia region on Monday, Jan. 25, but the number is improving.
The local health district reported 55.3 infections per 100,000 residents on Monday, down from about 92 over the weekend.
COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Monday from a low of 18.2 in Manassas Park to a high of 55.3 in Prince William. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 53.8 on Monday, which was also an improvement from the 62 reported over the weekend.
School pandemic metric rating: COVID-19 health metrics for Prince William County schools on Monday remained in the “highest risk” range in two of five metrics on the CDC scale.
The county’s ratings improved in some metrics, including the percent change in number of cases since last week, which showed a decrease of 46.6%, now in the “lowest risk” range, and in the number of hospital beds filled in the region, which is now below 80%.
Both “secondary metrics” are in the green or “lowest risk” ranges.
The number of cases per capita over the last 14 days remains in the “highest risk” category at 1,113, which is more than five times the 200 needed to qualify as “highest risk.”
The local average percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests over the past 14 days is 15.7%, which is also in the “highest-risk” category.
The percent of hospital beds filled with COVID-19 patients is 14.6%, which is in the “moderate risk” range.
Reflecting the spike of new COVID-19 cases early last week, the seven-day average number of new daily cases rose significantly in 14 of 20 Prince William area ZIP Codes over the past week.
Daily cases were up an average of 60% in those ZIP Codes, which included: 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 22025, and 22026.
Daily averages stayed the same in four ZIP Codes: 20119, 20143, 20187 and 22125.
Cases dropped in only two ZIP Codes: 22134 and 22172.
Saturday, Jan. 23: Prince William reports 12 more deaths due to COVID-19 over the past week
Prince William lost 12 more residents to COVID-19 this past week, while adding more than 2,400 cases and 16 more hospitalizations, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
New COVID-19 cases spiked in the Prince William Health District and statewide last Sunday, Jan. 17, which saw the highest number of new daily cases since the pandemic began. There were more than 9,900 new cases reported across state on Jan. 17, including more than 1,300 in the Prince William Health District. The number was partly the result of a backlog of cases associated with a new state reporting system, officials said.
As of Saturday, Jan. 23, new daily cases were still averaging more than 5,600 across the state, and more than 430 in Prince William County.
The actual number of cases reported on Saturday, however, was down to 196 in the Prince William Health District and down to 4,904 across Virginia.
Prince William is now one of 11 counties in Virginia seeing “a slow growth” of new cases, according to the latest analysis from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute.
There was some good news in the UVA Biocomplexity Institute’s weekly report: The holiday surge in new cases was less severe than expected.
Also, Prince William Health District’s percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests has fallen over the past week and is no longer the highest in Northern Virginia.
Less positive was that the county’s health district’s rate of infection, now 92.3 per 100,000 residents, remains the highest in Northern Virginia.
Also, the state is now bracing for the new variants of the novel coronavirus, which could result in a 40% increase in transmissibility rate, the UVA Biocomplexity institute says.
The institute is again reporting both best- and worst-case scenarios for the pandemic in the coming weeks. The current adapted model projects that weekly cases will peak at more than 50,000 in Virginia during the week ending February 14.
If new variants of the virus become dominant, however, which is expected in the U.S. by March, new weekly cases could sustain a peak of more than 65,000 new weekly cases for 10 weeks, from late February to late April, the report says.
“For a virus like COVID-19, increased transmissibility is very concerning,” the report says. “More people are likely to be infected, resulting in a corresponding increase in illness and deaths. Additionally, [the new variants] spread more quickly, increasing pressure on hospitals, healthcare workers and funeral homes already strained by COVID-19.”
Local deaths: The latest local deaths reported since Saturday, Jan. 16, include those of nine women and three men.
Two were residents of Manassas while 10 were residents of Prince William County. They included one resident in their 30s, one in their 60s, five in their 70s and five age 80 or older.
The latest fatalities bring the local death toll to 325.
Cases: After spiking to more than 1,300 on Sunday, Jan. 17, new daily cases reported in the Prince William Health District ranged between 200 to 300 over the past week and totaled more than 2,400.
Residents in their 20s reported the most cases over the past week with 502. They were followed by residents in their 30s, who reported 483 cases.
Kids and teens ages 19 and under reported 409 new cases with kids age 9 and under reporting 156 cases and those between the ages of 10 and 19 reporting 253, according to VDH data.
Hospitalizations: Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 across the state dipped below 3,000 on Saturday for the first time in weeks.
On Saturday, there were 2,923 people hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Virginia. The number includes 577 in Northern Virginia, down 14 since last week; 716 in Eastern Virginia, down 55; 711 in Central Virginia, up 27; 423 in Northwest Virginia, up 47; and 496 in Southwest Virginia, down 105.
Of those hospitalized, 567 patients were in intensive care units across the state, up six from Jan. 16. There were 320 on ventilators, down 20, according to the Virginia Healthcare and Hospital Association.
About 35% of the state’s ventilators were in use and 83% of the state’s ICU beds were occupied on Saturday, which is unchanged from last week, according to the VHHA.
There were 16 new hospitalizations reported locally over the past week, including those of three residents in their 30s, four in their 40s, three in their 50s, one in their 60s, four in their 70s and one age 80 or older, according to VDH data.
Percent-positivity rate: The Prince William Health District’s percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was 14.1% on Saturday, down from 18.3% last week.
The local percent-positivity rate now ranks second to the 14.5% reported by Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties.
The World Health Organization recommends at least two weeks of percent-positivity rates below 5% before governments consider reopening. No local businesses are currently required to be closed, however Gov. Ralph Northam announced a late-night curfew on Dec. 10.
Cases per 100,000 residents: Prince William County reported the highest highest rate of COVID-19 infections per capita in the Northern Virginia region on Saturday, Jan. 23, with 92.3 infections per 100,000 residents, up from a rate of 59.8 last week.
COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged on Saturday from a low of 26.4 in Manassas Park to a high of 92.3 in Prince William. Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 65.9 on Saturday.
ZIP Codes: Reflecting the spike of new COVID-19 cases earlier in the week, the seven-day average number of new daily cases rose significantly in 14 of 20 Prince William area ZIP Codes over the past week.
Daily cases were up an average of 60% in those ZIP Codes, which included: 22191, 22192, 22193, 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20136, 20137, 20155, 20169, 20181, 22025, and 22026.
Daily averages stayed the same in four ZIP Codes: 20119, 20143, 20187 and 22125.
Cases dropped in only two ZIP Codes: 22134 and 22172.
