An online Covid-19 calculator has identified several Scottish local authorities being at high risk of being ‘coronavirus hotspot’ on over the Christmas period.
Devised by Imperial College London, the website predicts which parts of the country have the greatest probability of seeing cases rise above 100 per 100,000, which it classes as a ‘hotspot.’
Clackmannanshire was deemed to be the most likely in the country to become a hotspot between December 20 and Boxing Day, sitting at 94%, according to the tool.
North Ayrshire and Fife both have a high chance of becoming a hotspot over that period, at 92%.
East Lothian, which the First Minister confirmed will be moving into Level 3 from December 18, is deemed to be 78% likely to have more than 100 cases per 100,000.
And Glasgow, which recently moved out of Level 4 into Level 3, has a 64% chance.
Meanwhile heading further west, Inverclyde is ranked at 10%, West Dunbartonshire at 9% and Argyll and Bute at 18%.
Some areas, including Orkney, Moray, Shetland Islands and Dumfries and Galloway are all deemed to have a 0% risk of becoming a hotspot over the festive period.
The website uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to report a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.
The predictions do assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.
From 6pm, Friday 18 December, new #coronavirus protection levels will apply to some local authority areas across Scotland.
Make sure you know which level applies to your local area ➡ https://t.co/TIe3CyNohI
Thread: Changes to coronavirus levels ⬇ pic.twitter.com/qPklCXSf0K
— Scottish Government (@scotgov) December 15, 2020
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